Updated
How to Forecast Demand for Your Shopify Store
A forecast is an estimate you can inspect and improve. Start with understandable inputs, then compare the recommendation with what your store and supplier can actually support.
Begin with sales velocity
For a simple baseline, divide units sold by the number of days in the observation period. Selling 300 units over 30 days gives a recorded average of 10 units per day. If you have 100 usable units and demand stays at that rate, they represent about 10 days of stock.
This example assumes steady demand, accurate stock, and no incoming supply. It describes a calculation, not a prediction that customers will buy exactly 10 units each day.
Inspect the history behind the average
Review stockout days, unusual promotions, cancellations, returns, and changes to products or SKUs. Sales observed while stock was unavailable may understate demand. Conversely, a one-time promotion may overstate a normal week.
Compare shorter and longer windows when the data allows it. A short window responds more quickly to changes but can be volatile. A long window can hide a recent shift. Use your knowledge of upcoming events alongside the available history.
Add lead time and existing supply
A recommendation needs to account for how long replacement stock takes to arrive. Review inventory already on order, its outstanding quantity, and expected arrival before placing another PO.
A simple quantity calculation is a target stock level minus the relevant inventory position, with a lower bound of zero. Define that position carefully: consider usable stock, eligible incoming units, and committed demand without counting the same units twice. Supplier minimums, pack sizes, and spending limits may change the practical order.
Review the suggestion before ordering
- Confirm the product has a usable supplier mapping.
- Check the freshness and coverage of sales and inventory data.
- Review lead time, target coverage, and any safety buffer.
- Check supplier availability, currency, costs, and existing open POs.
- Decide whether a promotion or discontinued product needs an override.
How StockrHub supports the decision
StockrHub’s forecasting workflow uses available sales history and planning settings to present velocity, stock coverage, and replenishment suggestions. Eligibility and output depend on the configured products, data, and suppliers. A recommendation is not a guarantee of future sales or delivery.
Reorder analysis can create or update draft POs for eligible items. Review the forecasting guide and automation controls to understand what your store is configured to do next.